CSKA Moskova 1-0 Baltika Kaliningrad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.59
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
4.65
6+ Goals
9%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.82
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.85
X/1
17%
4.47
X/2
9%
7.33
X/X
9%
4.03
2/1
10%
28.5
2/2
12%
6.04
2/X
12%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+1.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.8pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
1.48/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.12
+16% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 75%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
16.3 Crosses 19.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CSKA Moskova
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.58 xG 0.37
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
368 Passes 256
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.09.2025 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-1 HT 1-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUK
27.08.2025 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 0-2 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
28.04.2024 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 3-1 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
16.04.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 2-0 HT 2-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUK
03.04.2024 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 0-1 HT 0-1 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
30.09.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-0 HT 1-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CSKA Moskova
1-0
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
2.31 xG 0.23
68% Ball Possession 32%
21 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
451 Passes 173
83% Pass Accuracy 67%
40 Box Touches 7
30 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH CSKA Moskova vs Baltika Kaliningrad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Moskova edged past Baltika Kaliningrad 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had CSKA Moskova as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, CSKA Moskova had 68% of the ball to Baltika Kaliningrad's 32%, shots finished 21-5, expected goals 2.31 to 0.23 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold CSKA Moskova's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CSKA Moskova had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for CSKA Moskova and 0.67 for Baltika Kaliningrad.

What was the final score of CSKA Moskova vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

CSKA Moskova 1-0 Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russia - Premier League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CSKA Moskova vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Before kick-off our model rated a CSKA Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split CSKA Moskova 47%, draw 26%, Baltika Kaliningrad 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CSKA Moskova), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CSKA Moskova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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