Kayserispor 1-1 Gençlerbirliği — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.29
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.37
6+ Goals
8%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 31% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.95
1/2
9%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
17%
5.01
X/2
7%
7.0
X/X
12%
4.62
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
12%
4.99
2/X
11%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.4pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.9pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Gençlerbirliği EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -19%
1.56/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.83
+2% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
350 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
24.9 Crosses 18.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kayserispor
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.50 xG 1.70
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
371 Passes 328
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.01.2024 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-2 HT 1-1 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği TÜK
22.12.2022 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-0 HT 0-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği TÜK
20.04.2021 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-2 HT 1-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği TSL
28.12.2020 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 3-2 HT 1-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
20.06.2020 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-0 HT 1-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği TSL
09.11.2019 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-1 HT 1-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kayserispor
1-1
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
2.33 xG 0.38
72% Ball Possession 28%
23 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 0
379 Passes 113
87% Pass Accuracy 62%
32 Box Touches 1
52 Crosses 4
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kayserispor vs Gençlerbirliği
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kayserispor and Gençlerbirliği couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Kayserispor at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Kayserispor had 72% of the ball to Gençlerbirliği's 28%, shots finished 23-2, expected goals 2.33 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gençlerbirliği led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Kayserispor and 1.50 for Gençlerbirliği.

What was the final score of Kayserispor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Kayserispor 1-1 Gençlerbirliği in the Turkey - Super League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kayserispor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kayserispor win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Kayserispor 42%, draw 30%, Gençlerbirliği 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kayserispor), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kayserispor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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