Çaykur Rizespor 1-2 Kasımpaşa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.09
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.56
6+ Goals
12%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 28% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.78
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
15%
4.65
X/2
9%
7.19
X/X
10%
4.68
2/1
11%
24.7
2/2
11%
5.42
2/X
9%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
-0.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-0.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.6pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Çaykur Rizespor EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 31%
+4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.71/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.74
+9% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
19.7 Crosses 18.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Çaykur Rizespor
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Kasımpaşa
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.35 xG 1.78
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
329 Passes 304
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.02.2025 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-2 HT 2-1 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor TSL
31.08.2024 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor 0-1 HT 0-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
18.05.2024 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor 0-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
25.12.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-2 HT 1-1 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor TSL
12.03.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-1 HT 1-0 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor TSL
23.10.2021 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor 2-1 HT 1-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Çaykur Rizespor
1-2
AWAY Kasımpaşa
1.37 xG 0.36
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 4
403 Passes 196
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
13 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Çaykur Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa edged past Çaykur Rizespor 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Çaykur Rizespor at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Çaykur Rizespor had 62% of the ball to Kasımpaşa's 38%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.37 to 0.36 — the balance of chances actually favoured Çaykur Rizespor.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kasımpaşa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Çaykur Rizespor and 1.67 for Kasımpaşa.

What was the final score of Çaykur Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?

Çaykur Rizespor 1-2 Kasımpaşa in the Turkey - Super League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Çaykur Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Çaykur Rizespor win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Çaykur Rizespor 47%, draw 27%, Kasımpaşa 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Çaykur Rizespor), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Çaykur Rizespor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
TSL More Turkey - Super League
28 Sep 2025
17:00 Konyaspor vs Başakşehir FK Analysis →
20:00 Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor Analysis →
20:00 Kayserispor vs Gençlerbirliği Analysis →