Portland Hearts of Pine 1-0 Texoma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
17%
3.94
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.15
Over 2.5
59%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
28%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.6pp
17%
Draw
22%
-5.2pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+9.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
43%
-1.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
57%
+1.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.7pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Texoma EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +18%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
357 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
Crosses 13.8
Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Texoma
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
13.07.2025 Texoma 0-1 HT 0-1 Portland Hearts of Pine USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine
1-0
AWAY Texoma
1.11 xG 0.37
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
192 Passes 239
65% Pass Accuracy 70%
30 Box Touches 17
10 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Portland Hearts of Pine vs Texoma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Hearts of Pine squeezed past Texoma 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Portland Hearts of Pine as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Portland Hearts of Pine had 46% of the ball to Texoma's 54%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.11 to 0.37.

What was the final score of Portland Hearts of Pine vs Texoma?

Portland Hearts of Pine 1-0 Texoma in the USA - USL League 1 on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Hearts of Pine vs Texoma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Hearts of Pine win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Portland Hearts of Pine 57%, draw 17%, Texoma 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portland Hearts of Pine) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Portland Hearts of Pine) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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