Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK Prediction — Model Probabilities
Asteras Tripolis v PAOK — Team-Based Signals
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Asteras Tripolis 3-3 PAOK — Actual Match Statistics
Asteras Tripolis and PAOK couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-3. A 6-goal game — the defences never settled.
This one beat our numbers. PAOK carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 51%, coin-flips both. At 1.76 (~57%), the BTTS-no price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.
Under the surface, Asteras Tripolis had 40% of the ball to PAOK's 60%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.68 to 2.76.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PAOK led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Asteras Tripolis and 2.50 for PAOK.
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK Result & Final Score
Asteras Tripolis 3-3 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Asteras Tripolis 18%, draw 23%, PAOK 59%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PAOK), Under 2.5 went the other way.