St. Pauli 2-2 Hoffenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 28 Oct 2025

St. Pauli
2-2 HT 1-0
Hoffenheim
📅28/10/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - DFB Cup – 2025/2026

St. Pauli vs Hoffenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
2.8
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
52%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.1
Over Pick
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.54
No
47%
2.31
Total Goals
0-1
25%
4.14
2-3
34%
1.89
4-5
26%
3.12
6+
15%
9.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.39
1/2 ✗
12%
23.55
1/X
4%
12.8
X/1
12%
6.7
X/2
20%
5.35
X/X
11%
5.14
2/1
5%
29.0
2/2
21%
3.09
2/X
6%
12.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.55 — our 12% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

St. Pauli v Hoffenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli The Market 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim The Market 45%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -40% / -40%
2.17/2.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.09/1.02
+72% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -94% / +27%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
– Crosses 21.0
– Yellow Cards 1.0

St. Pauli vs Hoffenheim Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.30 xG 1.09
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
270 Passes 417
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.10.2025 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-3 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
14.03.2025 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
02.11.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 0-2 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
23.01.2011 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-2 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
28.08.2010 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-1 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
16.04.2008 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL2

St. Pauli 2-2 Hoffenheim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
2-2
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.48 xG 1.73
41% Ball Possession 59%
19 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 7
342 Passes 581
71% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 23
5 Yellow Cards 4
REVIEW St. Pauli vs Hoffenheim
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

a 2-2 draw left St. Pauli and Hoffenheim with a point apiece. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Hoffenheim at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. Credit where due: the 2.23 on offer implied only 45%, and the market's caution proved the wiser read.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 53%, coin-flips both. The market went further still — the BTTS-yes price closed at 1.54, about 65%.

On the day, St. Pauli had 41% of the ball to Hoffenheim's 59%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.48 to 1.73.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for St. Pauli and 1.17 for Hoffenheim.

St. Pauli vs Hoffenheim Result & Final Score

St. Pauli 2-2 Hoffenheim in the Germany - DFB Cup on 28/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

St. Pauli vs Hoffenheim Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 26%, draw 22%, Hoffenheim 52%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hoffenheim) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AFK More Germany - DFB Cup
28 Oct 2025
20:30 Hertha Berlin vs Elversberg Analysis →
20:30 Heidenheim vs Hamburg Analysis →
20:30 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund Analysis →
20:30 Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel Analysis →
22:45 Augsburg vs Bochum Analysis →
22:45 Energie Cottbus vs RB Leipzig Analysis →