Empoli 1-2 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 28 Dec 2024

Empoli
1-2 HT 0-0
Genoa
📅28/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
36%
2.77
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.51
Over 2.5
37%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.21
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
5.19
6+ Goals
7%
33.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.7
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
9%
5.18
X/2
12%
6.25
X/X
19%
3.39
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
11%
4.87
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.0pp
36%
Draw
33%
+2.8pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.9pp
63%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
38%
-0.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.1pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Empoli EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 33%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.24/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.16
-18% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
17.4 Crosses 17.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Empoli
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Genoa
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.93 xG 1.27
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
359 Passes 283
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.02.2024 Empoli Empoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
02.12.2023 Genoa Genoa 1-1 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
06.03.2022 Genoa Genoa 0-0 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
05.11.2021 Empoli Empoli 2-2 HT 0-1 Genoa Genoa İTA
28.01.2019 Empoli Empoli 1-3 HT 0-1 Genoa Genoa İTA
26.08.2018 Genoa Genoa 2-1 HT 2-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Empoli
1-2
AWAY Genoa
1.34 xG 1.77
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
362 Passes 228
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
31 Box Touches 18
28 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Empoli vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genoa edged past Empoli 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 36% / 28%) promised a tight game; Genoa found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Empoli had 59% of the ball to Genoa's 41%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.34 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genoa led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Empoli and 1.33 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Empoli vs Genoa?

Empoli 1-2 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 28/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Empoli vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Empoli win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Empoli 36%, draw 36%, Genoa 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/36/28) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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