Lazio 1-1 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 28 Dec 2024

📅28/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.84
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
37%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.98
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.68
6+ Goals
10%
15.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.55
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
9%
12.85
X/1
10%
6.41
X/2
13%
5.16
X/X
16%
4.24
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.34
2/X
6%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.2pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.4pp
37%
Away Win
40%
-2.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.7pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +1%
1.23/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.13
+2% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
386 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 82%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
17.4 Crosses 18.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Atalanta
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.07 xG 1.36
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
469 Passes 420
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2024 Atalanta Atalanta 3-1 HT 2-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
08.10.2023 Lazio Lazio 3-2 HT 2-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
11.02.2023 Lazio Lazio 0-2 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
23.10.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 0-2 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
22.01.2022 Lazio Lazio 0-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
30.10.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 2-2 HT 1-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
1-1
AWAY Atalanta
0.62 xG 2.81
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
293 Passes 461
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio and Atalanta shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (32% / 31% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lazio had 40% of the ball to Atalanta's 60%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.62 to 2.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lazio and 1.50 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Atalanta?

Lazio 1-1 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 28/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lazio 32%, draw 31%, Atalanta 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atalanta), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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