Derby County U21 vs Nottingham Forest U21 Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Derby County U21 v Nottingham Forest U21 — Team-Based Signals
Derby County U21 0-1 Nottingham Forest U21 — Actual Match Statistics
Nottingham Forest U21 nicked a narrow win over Derby County U21 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Derby County U21 at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Derby County U21 had 44% of the ball to Nottingham Forest U21's 56%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 0.42 to 2.65 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Nottingham Forest U21's control.
What was the final score of Derby County U21 vs Nottingham Forest U21?
Derby County U21 0-1 Nottingham Forest U21 in the England - Premier League 2 (League 1) on 29/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Derby County U21 vs Nottingham Forest U21?
Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Derby County U21 42%, draw 24%, Nottingham Forest U21 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Derby County U21) went the other way.