Bristol Rovers 1-2 Mansfield Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 29 Mar 2025

Bristol Rovers
1-2 HT 1-1
Mansfield Town
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Bristol Rovers vs Mansfield Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.32
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.78
Over 2.5
51%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.89
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.73
6+ Goals
11%
16.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.73 — our 26% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.85
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
26.0
1/X
5%
14.75
X/1
8%
7.49
X/2
13%
4.58
X/X
15%
4.58
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
20%
2.76
2/X
9%
13.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.0 — our 11% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 51% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
+0.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-3.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bristol Rovers v Mansfield Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Mansfield Town EU Bookmakers 51%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -61% / -61%
1.03/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.31/1.64
-2% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -60%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
222 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 72%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
17.6 Crosses 25.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5

Bristol Rovers vs Mansfield Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol Rovers
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mansfield Town
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.80 xG 1.36
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
183 Passes 254
63% Pass Accuracy 68%
9 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.11.2024 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
12.02.2022 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 0-0 HT 0-0 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
07.08.2021 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN2
12.03.2016 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-0 HT 0-0 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
17.10.2015 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN2
03.05.2014 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 0-1 HT 0-1 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2

Bristol Rovers 1-2 Mansfield Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol Rovers
1-2
AWAY Mansfield Town
1.08 xG 2.87
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
340 Passes 188
75% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bristol Rovers vs Mansfield Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mansfield Town squeezed past Bristol Rovers 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mansfield Town as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Bristol Rovers had 61% of the ball to Mansfield Town's 39%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.08 to 2.87 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Mansfield Town's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol Rovers had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bristol Rovers and 0.67 for Mansfield Town.

What was the final score of Bristol Rovers vs Mansfield Town?

Bristol Rovers 1-2 Mansfield Town in the England - 1st Division on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol Rovers vs Mansfield Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mansfield Town win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Bristol Rovers 27%, draw 29%, Mansfield Town 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mansfield Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mansfield Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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