Birmingham 4-1 Shrewsbury — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.28
Draw
25%
4.81
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.6
No
55%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 29% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.47
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
26.5
X/1
15%
3.49
X/2
7%
23.3
X/X
11%
6.7
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
5%
24.2
2/X
8%
32.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
74%
-15.7pp
25%
Draw
18%
+7.0pp
17%
Away Win
8%
+8.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
34%
+10.6pp
55%
BTTS No
66%
-10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Shrewsbury EU Bookmakers 11%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.94/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.58
-16% / +87% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +17%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
353 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 69%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
27.3 Crosses 14.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Shrewsbury
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.25 xG 1.82
74% Ball Possession 26%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
588 Passes 136
87% Pass Accuracy 57%
28 Box Touches 10
28 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.11.2024 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 3-2 HT 2-1 Birmingham Birmingham İN1
08.10.2024 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 0-4 HT 0-3 Birmingham Birmingham İNTK
20.07.2024 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 0-2 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
4-1
AWAY Shrewsbury
3.27 xG 0.46
71% Ball Possession 29%
15 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 1
567 Passes 171
87% Pass Accuracy 66%
31 Box Touches 3
23 Crosses 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Shrewsbury
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham ran out comfortable winners over Shrewsbury 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Birmingham had 71% of the ball to Shrewsbury's 29%, shots finished 15-2, expected goals 3.27 to 0.46.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Birmingham had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Birmingham and 1.00 for Shrewsbury.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Shrewsbury?

Birmingham 4-1 Shrewsbury in the England - 1st Division on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Shrewsbury?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 58%, draw 25%, Shrewsbury 17%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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