Shrewsbury 3-2 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
7.18
Draw
27%
4.49
Away
53%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.73
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
11.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.73 — our 29% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
14.05
1/2
11%
24.3
1/X
7%
22.1
X/1
8%
16.65
X/2
11%
3.41
X/X
12%
6.52
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.65
2/X
8%
21.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
11%
+9.5pp
27%
Draw
19%
+7.8pp
53%
Away Win
70%
-17.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.4pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shrewsbury EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 75%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
0.70/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/0.89
-33% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / -24%
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
201 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 466 · 82%
12.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
15.5 Crosses 32.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shrewsbury
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Birmingham
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.73 xG 2.97
29% Ball Possession 72%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
204 Passes 603
75% Pass Accuracy 89%
12 Box Touches 30
7 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.10.2024 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 0-4 HT 0-3 Birmingham Birmingham İNTK
20.07.2024 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 0-2 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shrewsbury
3-2
AWAY Birmingham
1.92 xG 1.53
20% Ball Possession 80%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 2
68 Passes 574
40% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 31
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shrewsbury vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shrewsbury squeezed past Birmingham 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Birmingham at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Shrewsbury had 20% of the ball to Birmingham's 80%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 1.92 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Birmingham led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Shrewsbury and 3.00 for Birmingham.

What was the final score of Shrewsbury vs Birmingham?

Shrewsbury 3-2 Birmingham in the England - 1st Division on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shrewsbury vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Shrewsbury 20%, draw 27%, Birmingham 53%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Birmingham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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