Morecambe 1-0 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 29 Mar 2025

Morecambe
1-0 HT 1-0
Swindon Town
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Morecambe vs Swindon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.42
6+ Goals
11%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.62
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
10%
6.55
X/2
13%
5.17
X/X
12%
4.71
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
21%
3.21
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 52% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+0.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Morecambe v Swindon Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -17%
1.26/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.34
+9% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -23%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
254 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 75%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
19.3 Crosses 20.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

Morecambe vs Swindon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morecambe
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Swindon Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.22 xG 1.52
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
237 Passes 389
69% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.11.2024 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-3 HT 1-2 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
23.09.2023 Morecambe Morecambe 2-2 HT 1-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
31.08.2019 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-1 HT 3-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
23.03.2019 Swindon Town Swindon Town 4-0 HT 2-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
08.09.2018 Morecambe Morecambe 0-1 HT 0-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
30.03.2018 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2

Morecambe 1-0 Swindon Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morecambe
1-0
AWAY Swindon Town
0.32 xG 0.74
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
195 Passes 308
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 9
11 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Morecambe nicked a narrow win over Swindon Town 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Swindon Town at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Morecambe had 41% of the ball to Swindon Town's 59%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 0.32 to 0.74 — on chances, Swindon Town could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swindon Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Morecambe and 2.17 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Swindon Town?

Morecambe 1-0 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 31%, draw 27%, Swindon Town 42%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Swindon Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✓ Under 2.5
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