Barrow 0-1 Chesterfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.65
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
4.06
6+ Goals
9%
19.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.97
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1 EV+ ✗
18%
5.61
X/2
10%
5.63
X/X
11%
4.19
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
18%
3.99
2/X
9%
13.6
Value flag · X/1 at 5.61 — our 18% vs market 13.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+3.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-1.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.6pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barrow EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesterfield EU Bookmakers 39%
-5% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.28/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/0.94
-4% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +63%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
219 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 68%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
20.0 Crosses 19.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barrow
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Chesterfield
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
0.33 xG 0.90
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
222 Passes 435
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
6 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-0 HT 0-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
24.08.2019 Chesterfield Chesterfield 2-2 HT 1-2 Barrow Barrow İBSL
26.01.2019 Chesterfield Chesterfield 0-0 HT 0-0 Barrow Barrow İBSL
14.08.2018 Barrow Barrow 3-2 HT 1-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barrow
0-1
AWAY Chesterfield
0.74 xG 0.10
34% Ball Possession 66%
5 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 4
215 Passes 495
71% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 5
13 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Barrow vs Chesterfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesterfield squeezed past Barrow 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Chesterfield found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Barrow had 34% of the ball to Chesterfield's 66%, shots finished 5-4, expected goals 0.74 to 0.10 — on chances, Barrow could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Barrow and 1.25 for Chesterfield.

What was the final score of Barrow vs Chesterfield?

Barrow 0-1 Chesterfield in the England - 2nd Division on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barrow vs Chesterfield?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barrow win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Barrow 40%, draw 27%, Chesterfield 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Barrow) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Barrow) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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