Burnley 1-0 Bristol City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.69
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
4.17
6+ Goals
9%
20.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 33% vs market 30.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.36
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.05
X/1
23%
4.14
X/2
10%
9.15
X/X
15%
4.51
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
8%
7.86
2/X
6%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-6.6pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol City EU Bookmakers 24%
+8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
1.48/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.43
+11% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
295 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 72%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
20.8 Crosses 15.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burnley
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Bristol City
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.33 xG 0.87
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
383 Passes 297
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 16
11 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Bristol City Bristol City 0-1 HT 0-1 Burnley Burnley İNCL
29.04.2023 Bristol City Bristol City 1-2 HT 0-1 Burnley Burnley İNCL
17.09.2022 Burnley Burnley 2-1 HT 1-1 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
28.01.2017 Burnley Burnley 2-0 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City FAK
28.12.2015 Burnley Burnley 4-0 HT 2-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
29.08.2015 Bristol City Bristol City 1-2 HT 0-2 Burnley Burnley İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
1-0
AWAY Bristol City
1.90 xG 0.29
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
402 Passes 330
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
36 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 9
POST-MATCH Burnley vs Bristol City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley edged past Bristol City 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Burnley as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Burnley had 54% of the ball to Bristol City's 46%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 1.90 to 0.29 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Burnley's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Burnley and 0.50 for Bristol City.

What was the final score of Burnley vs Bristol City?

Burnley 1-0 Bristol City in the England - Championship on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley vs Bristol City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burnley win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Burnley 50%, draw 27%, Bristol City 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burnley), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Burnley) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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