Lecce vs Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lecce v Roma — Team-Based Signals
Lecce vs Roma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-0
Lecce
İTA
1-1
HT 1-1
Roma
İTA
2-1
HT 1-1
Lecce
İTA
3-1
HT 1-1
Lecce
İTK
Lecce 0-1 Roma — Actual Match Statistics
Roma squeezed past Lecce 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.
On the day, Lecce had 45% of the ball to Roma's 55%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 0.67 to 2.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Roma's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lecce and 2.00 for Roma.
What was the final score of Lecce vs Roma?
Lecce 0-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lecce vs Roma?
Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Lecce 26%, draw 26%, Roma 48%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.