Lecce 0-1 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 29 Mar 2025

Lecce
0-1 HT 0-0
Roma
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.13
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.74
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
4.1
6+ Goals
9%
19.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
8.1
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
4%
16.65
X/1
7%
9.46
X/2
17%
4.15
X/X
18%
4.53
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
25%
2.31
2/X
4%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+5.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-5.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 57%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.13/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/1.02
-10% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -14%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
240 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 82%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
16.8 Crosses 18.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Roma
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.74 xG 2.22
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
253 Passes 432
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 Roma Roma 4-1 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
01.04.2024 Lecce Lecce 0-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
05.11.2023 Roma Roma 2-1 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
11.02.2023 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 1-1 Roma Roma İTA
09.10.2022 Roma Roma 2-1 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
20.01.2022 Roma Roma 3-1 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
0-1
AWAY Roma
0.67 xG 2.45
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
282 Passes 369
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 38
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma squeezed past Lecce 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Lecce had 45% of the ball to Roma's 55%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 0.67 to 2.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Roma's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lecce and 2.00 for Roma.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Roma?

Lecce 0-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Lecce 26%, draw 26%, Roma 48%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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