Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Deportivo Riestra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.9
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
1.45
Over 2.5
30%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.33
No
66%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
46%
1.99
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
11%
5.97
6+ Goals
6%
35.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 1.99 — our 46% vs market 41.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.72
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.5
X/1
19%
4.19
X/2
8%
8.37
X/X
18%
3.5
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
15%
7.79
2/X
8%
17.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
49%
-9.1pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.9pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.2pp
70%
Under 2.5
65%
+4.7pp
30%
Over 2.5
35%
-4.7pp
34%
BTTS Yes
39%
-4.5pp
66%
BTTS No
61%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Riestra EU Bookmakers 24%
+7% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.42/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.08
+14% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +25%
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
390 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 187 · 65%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
19.7 Crosses 11.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velez Sarsfield
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Riestra
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.84 xG 1.02
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
364 Passes 127
77% Pass Accuracy 56%
30 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 4
11.11.2024 Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra 1-1 HT 0-1 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
15.02.2024 Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra 1-2 HT 1-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Velez Sarsfield
0-1
AWAY Deportivo Riestra
0.52 xG 0.45
77% Ball Possession 23%
10 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
467 Passes 80
82% Pass Accuracy 47%
18 Box Touches 5
34 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Velez Sarsfield vs Deportivo Riestra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Riestra edged past Velez Sarsfield 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 32% / 28% — and on the day Deportivo Riestra made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (66%) came in.

On the day, Velez Sarsfield had 77% of the ball to Deportivo Riestra's 23%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.52 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Velez Sarsfield had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 1.00 for Deportivo Riestra.

What was the final score of Velez Sarsfield vs Deportivo Riestra?

Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Deportivo Riestra in the Argentina - Premier League on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velez Sarsfield vs Deportivo Riestra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Velez Sarsfield win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Velez Sarsfield 39%, draw 32%, Deportivo Riestra 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Velez Sarsfield) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Velez Sarsfield) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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