Marupe 1-0 Tukums II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
Over 2.5
46%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.55
No
56%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
52%
-2.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
60%
-15.9pp
56%
BTTS No
40%
+15.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marupe EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Tukums II EU Bookmakers 28%
+37% / +37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
2.33/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/2.56
+5% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marupe
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Tukums II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
31.08.2024 Marupe Marupe 2-1 HT 2-0 Tukums II Tukums II LET1
05.05.2024 Tukums II Tukums II 0-1 Marupe Marupe LET1
POST-MATCH Marupe vs Tukums II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marupe nicked a narrow win over Tukums II 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Marupe as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Marupe had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Marupe and 0.50 for Tukums II.

What was the final score of Marupe vs Tukums II?

Marupe 1-0 Tukums II in the Latvia - 1st Division on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marupe vs Tukums II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marupe win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Marupe 49%, draw 26%, Tukums II 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marupe), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marupe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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