CA La Paz 3-1 Leones Negros Udeg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
43%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
19%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+4.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-8.9pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 43%
+6% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +9%
1.85/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/1.28
+48% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / -9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
277 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA La Paz
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
13.10.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
06.05.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-1 HT 0-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
03.05.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 1-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
28.03.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 2-4 HT 0-2 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
23.08.2023 CA La Paz CA La Paz 3-0 HT 2-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
24.02.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-2 HT 0-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
POST-MATCH CA La Paz vs Leones Negros Udeg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA La Paz saw off Leones Negros Udeg 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Leones Negros Udeg at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for CA La Paz and 2.00 for Leones Negros Udeg.

What was the final score of CA La Paz vs Leones Negros Udeg?

CA La Paz 3-1 Leones Negros Udeg in the Mexico - Primera A on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA La Paz vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split CA La Paz 34%, draw 23%, Leones Negros Udeg 43%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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