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Chelsea (K) vs Aston Villa (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chelsea (K) v Aston Villa (K) — Team-Based Signals
Chelsea (K) vs Aston Villa (K) Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
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Chelsea (K) 4-3 Aston Villa (K) — Actual Match Statistics
Chelsea (K) edged past Aston Villa (K) 4-3. The game was level at 3-3 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Chelsea (K) as the likeliest winner at 74%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Chelsea (K) had 66% of the ball to Aston Villa (K)'s 34%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 2.23 to 1.22.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Chelsea (K) had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Chelsea (K) and 0.25 for Aston Villa (K).
What was the final score of Chelsea (K) vs Aston Villa (K)?
Chelsea (K) 4-3 Aston Villa (K) in the England - Women's Premier League on 29/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chelsea (K) vs Aston Villa (K)?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 74%, with the full match-result split Chelsea (K) 74%, draw 18%, Aston Villa (K) 8%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea (K)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.