Al Hilal Riyadh 1-3 Al Ahli Jeddah — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 29 Apr 2025

📅29/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.33
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
31%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.43
Over 2.5
59%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.46
No
40%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.95
2-3 Goals
43%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.63
6+ Goals
12%
6.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.47
1/2
4%
23.75
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
10%
6.05
X/2
10%
6.18
X/X
6%
5.92
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.3
2/2
17%
3.58
2/X
10%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.3 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
39%
+6.8pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-5.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.6pp
60%
BTTS Yes
64%
-4.6pp
40%
BTTS No
36%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah EU Bookmakers 40%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
2.15/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/0.87
+16% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
18.9 Crosses 17.1
3.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.86 xG 1.19
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
343 Passes 247
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
28.02.2025 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 2-3 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD
05.10.2024 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 1-2 HT 1-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh SUUD
13.08.2024 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 1-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUSK
06.05.2024 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 1-2 HT 1-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh SUUD
27.10.2023 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 3-1 HT 2-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD
18.03.2022 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 4-2 HT 3-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh
1-3
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah
0.28 xG 3.39
54% Ball Possession 46%
4 Total Shots 21
1 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 7
208 Passes 157
73% Pass Accuracy 66%
8 Box Touches 41
10 Crosses 17
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Ahli Jeddah
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli Jeddah beat Al Hilal Riyadh 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Al Hilal Riyadh at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Al Hilal Riyadh had 54% of the ball to Al Ahli Jeddah's 46%, shots finished 4-21, expected goals 0.28 to 3.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Hilal Riyadh had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Al Hilal Riyadh and 1.50 for Al Ahli Jeddah.

What was the final score of Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Ahli Jeddah?

Al Hilal Riyadh 1-3 Al Ahli Jeddah in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 29/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Ahli Jeddah?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Hilal Riyadh win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Al Hilal Riyadh 46%, draw 23%, Al Ahli Jeddah 31%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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