Libertad 3-1 Uni. Catolica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 29 Apr 2025

📅29/04/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.86
Over 2.5
57%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.7
No
43%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+3.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-1.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
50%
-6.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
50%
+6.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.3pp
43%
BTTS No
45%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 46%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.27/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.10
-21% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +12%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
242 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
21.6 Crosses 15.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Uni. Catolica
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.74 xG 1.21
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 10
212 Passes 413
70% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Uni. Catolica 1-2 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
25.07.2024 Uni. Catolica 1-1 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad CSA
18.07.2024 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 0-0 Uni. Catolica CSA
12.03.2024 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
07.11.2023 Uni. Catolica 0-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
27.05.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-2 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
3-1
AWAY Uni. Catolica
2.08 xG 1.54
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
229 Passes 248
69% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Uni. Catolica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad saw off Uni. Catolica 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Libertad made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Libertad had 49% of the ball to Uni. Catolica's 51%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 2.08 to 1.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Libertad and 0.83 for Uni. Catolica.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Uni. Catolica?

Libertad 3-1 Uni. Catolica in the Ecuador - Premier on 29/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Uni. Catolica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Uni. Catolica win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Libertad 34%, draw 25%, Uni. Catolica 40%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Uni. Catolica) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uni. Catolica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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