Uni. Catolica 1-2 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.27
Draw
24%
5.15
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.16
No
53%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
13%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
75%
-15.7pp
24%
Draw
17%
+7.6pp
17%
Away Win
9%
+8.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.3pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 11%
-3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.69/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.56
+5% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +2%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
401 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 73%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
21.0 Crosses 11.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uni. Catolica
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Libertad
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.89 xG 0.82
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
403 Passes 228
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.07.2024 Uni. Catolica 1-1 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad CSA
18.07.2024 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 0-0 Uni. Catolica CSA
12.03.2024 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
07.11.2023 Uni. Catolica 0-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
27.05.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-2 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uni. Catolica
1-2
AWAY Libertad
2.85 xG 0.37
73% Ball Possession 27%
29 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
19 Corners 3
462 Passes 130
90% Pass Accuracy 64%
43 Box Touches 9
52 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Uni. Catolica vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad nicked a narrow win over Uni. Catolica 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Uni. Catolica at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Uni. Catolica had 73% of the ball to Libertad's 27%, shots finished 29-6, expected goals 2.85 to 0.37 — the balance of chances actually favoured Uni. Catolica.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Uni. Catolica and 1.00 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Uni. Catolica vs Libertad?

Uni. Catolica 1-2 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uni. Catolica vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uni. Catolica win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Uni. Catolica 59%, draw 24%, Libertad 17%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Uni. Catolica), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uni. Catolica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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