Vipers 1-0 UPDF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 29 Apr 2025

Vipers
1-0 HT 0-0
UPDF
📅29/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.3
Draw
27%
4.49
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.6
No
56%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
6%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
72%
-14.7pp
27%
Draw
19%
+8.1pp
16%
Away Win
9%
+6.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
34%
+9.2pp
56%
BTTS No
66%
-9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vipers EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY UPDF EU Bookmakers 12%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.58/0.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.89
-25% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -5%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
426 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 210 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vipers
3W-1D-0L
AWAY UPDF
2.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.01.2025 UPDF UPDF 0-1 HT 0-1 Vipers Vipers UGA
05.04.2024 Vipers Vipers 2-1 HT 1-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
18.02.2022 UPDF UPDF 1-1 HT 1-0 Vipers Vipers UGA
27.12.2021 Vipers Vipers 7-2 HT 6-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vipers
1-0
AWAY UPDF
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 0
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vipers vs UPDF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vipers edged past UPDF 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vipers as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vipers had 61% of the ball to UPDF's 39%, shots finished 14-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Vipers had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for Vipers and 1.00 for UPDF.

What was the final score of Vipers vs UPDF?

Vipers 1-0 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 29/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vipers vs UPDF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vipers win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Vipers 57%, draw 27%, UPDF 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vipers), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vipers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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