Willem II 2-1 Utrecht II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 29 Aug 2025

📅29/08/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.42
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
14%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.71
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.6
6+ Goals
13%
6.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.67
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.75
X/1
18%
3.98
X/2
5%
13.7
X/X
7%
7.19
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
19.45
2/2
6%
10.65
2/X
5%
19.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.45 — our 13% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
66%
+0.5pp
20%
Draw
19%
+0.5pp
14%
Away Win
15%
-0.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 18%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.98/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.66
+5% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 75%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
27.0 Crosses 13.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Utrecht II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.77 xG 0.28
62% Ball Possession 38%
21 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 2
462 Passes 259
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 8
38 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.04.2024 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-1 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
10.11.2023 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 0-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
12.05.2023 Willem II Willem II 3-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
29.08.2022 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
2-1
AWAY Utrecht II
1.55 xG 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 4
372 Passes 371
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Willem II vs Utrecht II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II squeezed past Utrecht II 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Willem II as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Willem II had 51% of the ball to Utrecht II's 49%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.55 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Willem II had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Willem II and 0.50 for Utrecht II.

What was the final score of Willem II vs Utrecht II?

Willem II 2-1 Utrecht II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 29/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs Utrecht II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Willem II 67%, draw 20%, Utrecht II 14%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Willem II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Willem II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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