PSV II 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 29 Aug 2025

📅29/08/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
2.89
Over 2.5
67%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
66%
1.38
No
34%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.12
2-3 Goals
38%
2.06
4-5 Goals
30%
2.37
6+ Goals
15%
4.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.23
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
21.95
1/X
5%
12.35
X/1
16%
6.01
X/2
12%
6.25
X/X
11%
6.48
2/1
7%
21.2
2/2
15%
3.42
2/X
6%
12.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.95 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+2.4pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.3pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-0.2pp
33%
Under 2.5
31%
+2.4pp
67%
Over 2.5
69%
-2.4pp
66%
BTTS Yes
68%
-2.4pp
34%
BTTS No
32%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV II EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +13%
1.49/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.39
+5% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
14.2 Crosses 10.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV II
2W-2D-2L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.80 xG 1.88
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
374 Passes 439
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 32
14 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2025 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-2 HT 0-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
25.11.2024 PSV II PSV II 2-1 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
08.03.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 4-1 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
24.11.2023 PSV II PSV II 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
27.02.2023 PSV II PSV II 3-3 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
12.12.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 HT 2-3 PSV II PSV II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV II
1-0
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.40 xG 0.48
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 5
270 Passes 408
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSV II vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV II nicked a narrow win over AZ Alkmaar II 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had PSV II as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (66%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PSV II had 43% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 57%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.40 to 0.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for PSV II and 2.33 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of PSV II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

PSV II 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 29/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV II win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split PSV II 42%, draw 21%, AZ Alkmaar II 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV II) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PSV II) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
29 Aug 2025
21:00 FC Oss vs Dordrecht Analysis →
21:00 Willem II vs Utrecht II Analysis →
21:00 Emmen vs Den Bosch Analysis →
21:00 ADO Den Haag vs Helmond Sport Analysis →
21:00 Ajax II vs MVV Maastricht Analysis →
21:00 Roda vs FC Eindhoven Analysis →