Ljungskile 2-1 AFC Malmö — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 1st Division, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
49%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+0.9pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.2pp
49%
Away Win
46%
+2.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.1pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ljungskile EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Malmö EU Bookmakers 50%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -43% / -43%
1.53/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/2.20
+10% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -42%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ljungskile
0W-0D-3L
AWAY AFC Malmö
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.06.2024 AFC Malmö 2-1 HT 1-0 Ljungskile Ljungskile İSÇ3
04.11.2023 AFC Malmö 2-1 HT 0-1 Ljungskile Ljungskile İSÇ3
23.04.2023 Ljungskile Ljungskile 2-3 HT 1-1 AFC Malmö İSÇ3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ljungskile
2-1
AWAY AFC Malmö
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ljungskile vs AFC Malmö
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ljungskile edged past AFC Malmö 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was AFC Malmö at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ljungskile had 37% of the ball to AFC Malmö's 63%, shots finished 6-11.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, AFC Malmö led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ljungskile and 2.33 for AFC Malmö.

What was the final score of Ljungskile vs AFC Malmö?

Ljungskile 2-1 AFC Malmö in the Sweden - 1st Division on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ljungskile vs AFC Malmö?

Before kick-off our model rated an AFC Malmö win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Ljungskile 30%, draw 22%, AFC Malmö 49%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AFC Malmö) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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