Bergnäsets 3-1 IFK Östersund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
36%
2.43
Over Pick
64%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.43
No
36%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1
19%
2-3
34%
4-5
32%
6+
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-1.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+0.8pp
36%
Under 2.5
38%
-1.5pp
64%
Over 2.5
62%
+1.5pp
64%
BTTS Yes
66%
-1.9pp
36%
BTTS No
34%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bergnäsets EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Östersund EU Bookmakers 40%
+17% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
2.13/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.52
+19% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
358 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bergnäsets
3W-2D-1L
AWAY IFK Östersund
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
06.06.2024 IFK Östersund IFK Östersund 1-1 HT 0-1 Bergnäsets Bergnäsets İSÇ4
16.09.2023 Bergnäsets Bergnäsets 2-1 HT 0-0 IFK Östersund IFK Östersund İSÇ4
20.05.2023 IFK Östersund IFK Östersund 0-1 HT 0-1 Bergnäsets Bergnäsets İSÇ4
09.04.2022 Bergnäsets Bergnäsets 0-3 HT 0-3 IFK Östersund IFK Östersund İSÇ4
06.11.2021 Bergnäsets Bergnäsets 3-2 HT 2-0 IFK Östersund IFK Östersund İSÇ4
28.08.2021 IFK Östersund IFK Östersund 1-1 HT 1-1 Bergnäsets Bergnäsets İSÇ4
POST-MATCH Bergnäsets vs IFK Östersund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bergnäsets saw off IFK Östersund 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 38%) promised a tight game; Bergnäsets found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (64%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bergnäsets had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bergnäsets and 1.33 for IFK Östersund.

What was the final score of Bergnäsets vs IFK Östersund?

Bergnäsets 3-1 IFK Östersund in the Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bergnäsets vs IFK Östersund?

Before kick-off our model rated an IFK Östersund win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Bergnäsets 37%, draw 25%, IFK Östersund 38%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (IFK Östersund) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (IFK Östersund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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