Burgos 2-2 Granada — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.92
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.0
6+ Goals
10%
18.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 29% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.34
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
17%
5.0
X/2
10%
6.16
X/X
16%
4.17
2/1
10%
29.0
2/2
11%
4.48
2/X
6%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.7pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.2pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.7pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burgos EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Granada EU Bookmakers 34%
+12% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.31/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/0.92
-11% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +32%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 76%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
19.3 Crosses 20.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burgos
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Granada
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.73 xG 1.31
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
254 Passes 300
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
04.03.2023 Burgos Burgos 1-3 HT 1-0 Granada Granada İS2
11.12.2022 Granada Granada 1-0 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burgos
2-2
AWAY Granada
1.26 xG 1.04
43% Ball Possession 57%
5 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
236 Passes 330
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
8 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Burgos vs Granada
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burgos and Granada couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Burgos had 43% of the ball to Granada's 57%, shots finished 5-9, expected goals 1.26 to 1.04.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Granada led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Burgos and 2.00 for Granada.

What was the final score of Burgos vs Granada?

Burgos 2-2 Granada in the Spain - 2nd Division on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burgos vs Granada?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burgos win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Burgos 40%, draw 30%, Granada 30%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Burgos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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