Ourense CF 1-3 Barakaldo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.94
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
32%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.51
Over 2.5
47%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.06
No
52%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.26
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
5.44
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
18%
2/1
4%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
31%
+7.8pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
39%
-7.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
62%
-9.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
38%
+9.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ourense CF EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Barakaldo EU Bookmakers 43%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
2.51/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
+140% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ourense CF
1-3
AWAY Barakaldo
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 23
3 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ourense CF vs Barakaldo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barakaldo saw off Ourense CF 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Barakaldo found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Ourense CF had 49% of the ball to Barakaldo's 51%, shots finished 8-23.

What was the final score of Ourense CF vs Barakaldo?

Ourense CF 1-3 Barakaldo in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ourense CF vs Barakaldo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ourense CF win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ourense CF 39%, draw 29%, Barakaldo 32%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ourense CF) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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