Roma 2-1 Venezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 29 Sep 2024

Roma
2-1 HT 0-1
Venezia
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.49
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
17%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.2
6+ Goals
12%
10.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.25
X/1
23%
3.64
X/2
5%
12.35
X/X
12%
5.96
2/1 EV+ ✓
9%
22.3
2/2
8%
9.78
2/X
5%
18.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
63%
-3.3pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.8pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+1.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Venezia EU Bookmakers 19%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +17%
1.89/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.44
+14% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +45%
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
410 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
19.4 Crosses 14.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Venezia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
3.34 xG 1.64
65% Ball Possession 35%
36 Total Shots 8
14 Shots on Target 4
16 Corners 3
431 Passes 212
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
62 Box Touches 10
40 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
14.05.2022 Roma Roma 1-1 HT 0-1 Venezia Venezia İTA
07.11.2021 Venezia Venezia 3-2 HT 1-2 Roma Roma İTA
07.04.2002 Venezia Venezia 2-2 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
02.12.2001 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
2-1
AWAY Venezia
1.68 xG 1.70
69% Ball Possession 31%
22 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 3
496 Passes 186
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Roma vs Venezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma edged past Venezia 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Roma had 69% of the ball to Venezia's 31%, shots finished 22-18, expected goals 1.68 to 1.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Roma and 1.50 for Venezia.

What was the final score of Roma vs Venezia?

Roma 2-1 Venezia in the Italy - Serie A on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Venezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Roma 60%, draw 23%, Venezia 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Over 2.5
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