Düren Merzenich 2-2 Köln II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.9pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Düren Merzenich EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Köln II EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.94/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.30
+20% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +15%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Düren Merzenich
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Köln II
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2024 Köln II Köln II 0-1 HT 0-1 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich ALMBÖL
19.08.2023 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich 1-1 HT 0-1 Köln II Köln II ALMBÖL
11.02.2023 Köln II Köln II 2-0 HT 1-0 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich ALMBÖL
21.08.2022 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich 3-2 HT 2-1 Köln II Köln II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Düren Merzenich vs Köln II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Düren Merzenich and Köln II couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Düren Merzenich at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (59%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Düren Merzenich had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Düren Merzenich and 1.25 for Köln II.

What was the final score of Düren Merzenich vs Köln II?

Düren Merzenich 2-2 Köln II in the Germany - Regional League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Düren Merzenich vs Köln II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Düren Merzenich win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Düren Merzenich 41%, draw 26%, Köln II 33%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Düren Merzenich) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Düren Merzenich) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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