Karabağ 3-2 Sabah — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.49
Draw
29%
4.19
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.7
No
43%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
63%
-16.6pp
29%
Draw
21%
+8.6pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.6pp
43%
BTTS No
45%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Sabah EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
2.56/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.50
+33% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +8%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
372 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sabah
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
11.02.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 3-3 HT 1-1 Sabah Sabah AZERS
08.02.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 3-4 HT 1-2 Sabah Sabah AZERK
30.01.2024 Sabah Sabah 1-7 HT 0-3 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
24.11.2023 Sabah Sabah 1-2 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
17.09.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 2-0 HT 0-0 Sabah Sabah AZERS
16.04.2023 Sabah Sabah 2-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Sabah
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ edged past Sabah 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Karabağ and 1.83 for Sabah.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Sabah?

Karabağ 3-2 Sabah in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Sabah?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 46%, draw 29%, Sabah 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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29 Sep 2024
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