Gent 3-0 OH Leuven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 26% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.94
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1
18%
4.81
X/2
11%
6.66
X/X
13%
4.89
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
12%
4.64
2/X
9%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.2pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gent EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY OH Leuven EU Bookmakers 33%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.51/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.34
-1% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
414 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
20.5 Crosses 15.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gent
2W-2D-2L
AWAY OH Leuven
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.92 xG 1.21
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
431 Passes 248
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.05.2024 Gent Gent 0-1 HT 0-1 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL
14.04.2024 OH Leuven OH Leuven 2-1 HT 2-1 Gent Gent BEL
21.12.2023 Gent Gent 4-0 HT 1-0 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL
17.09.2023 OH Leuven OH Leuven 1-1 HT 1-1 Gent Gent BEL
19.02.2023 Gent Gent 2-0 HT 0-0 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL
30.10.2022 OH Leuven OH Leuven 1-1 HT 0-1 Gent Gent BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gent
3-0
AWAY OH Leuven
0.99 xG 0.47
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
311 Passes 413
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gent vs OH Leuven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gent cruised past OH Leuven 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gent as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Gent had 44% of the ball to OH Leuven's 56%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.99 to 0.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gent and 0.83 for OH Leuven.

What was the final score of Gent vs OH Leuven?

Gent 3-0 OH Leuven in the Belgium - Pro League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gent vs OH Leuven?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gent win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gent 43%, draw 27%, OH Leuven 30%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gent) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gent)
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