Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Nara Club — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
55%
-8.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+8.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.5pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Nara Club EU Bookmakers 23%
+5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +14%
1.44/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.47
-18% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
377 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 13.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Nara Club
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
13.04.2024 Nara Club Nara Club 2-2 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
02.12.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 HT 0-1 Nara Club Nara Club JAP3
05.03.2023 Nara Club Nara Club 0-2 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1-1
AWAY Nara Club
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 1
402 Passes 259
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Nara Club
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga and Nara Club couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Matsumoto Yamaga at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 55% of the ball to Nara Club's 45%, shots finished 18-4.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.00 for Nara Club.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Nara Club?

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Nara Club in the Japan - J3 League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Nara Club?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 46%, draw 24%, Nara Club 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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