Sepsi 0-1 FCSB — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Romania - 1st Division, 29 Sep 2024

Sepsi
0-1 HT 0-1
FCSB
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
37%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.19
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.68
6+ Goals
9%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 29% vs market 25.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
12%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+4.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-4.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.3pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sepsi EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY FCSB EU Bookmakers 45%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.26/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.42
+9% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.0
Crosses 22.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sepsi
0W-1D-5L
AWAY FCSB
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.26 xG 1.30
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.04.2024 Sepsi Sepsi 2-2 HT 1-2 FCSB FCSB ROM
17.03.2024 FCSB FCSB 2-1 HT 2-1 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
11.02.2024 FCSB FCSB 1-0 HT 1-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
24.09.2023 Sepsi Sepsi 2-5 HT 0-2 FCSB FCSB ROM
08.05.2023 FCSB FCSB 3-1 HT 1-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
03.04.2023 Sepsi Sepsi 1-2 HT 1-2 FCSB FCSB ROM
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sepsi
0-1
AWAY FCSB
1.54 xG 0.48
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 0
319 Passes 373
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 13
29 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sepsi vs FCSB
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FCSB edged past Sepsi 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day FCSB made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Sepsi had 49% of the ball to FCSB's 51%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.54 to 0.48 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sepsi.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FCSB led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sepsi and 2.50 for FCSB.

What was the final score of Sepsi vs FCSB?

Sepsi 0-1 FCSB in the Romania - 1st Division on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sepsi vs FCSB?

Before kick-off our model rated an FCSB win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Sepsi 36%, draw 27%, FCSB 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FCSB), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FCSB) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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