Defensor Sporting 3-1 Deportivo Maldonado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
26%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-11.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.4pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
1.84/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.40
+18% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensor Sporting
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.06.2024 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 0-2 HT 0-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
24.03.2024 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
26.11.2023 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 2-1 HT 1-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
23.04.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
16.10.2022 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 0-0 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
29.05.2022 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensor Sporting
3-1
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado
60% Ball Possession 40%
8 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensor Sporting beat Deportivo Maldonado 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Defensor Sporting as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Defensor Sporting had 60% of the ball to Deportivo Maldonado's 40%, shots finished 8-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Maldonado led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Defensor Sporting and 0.83 for Deportivo Maldonado.

What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Defensor Sporting 3-1 Deportivo Maldonado in the Uruguay - Premier League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 45%, draw 28%, Deportivo Maldonado 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensor Sporting) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Defensor Sporting) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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29 Sep 2024
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