Phoenix Rising 1-2 Las Vegas Lights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.32
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.56
6+ Goals
8%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 31% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.7pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -10%
1.55/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.85
+34% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
16.9 Crosses 14.8
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Phoenix Rising
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.38 xG 1.56
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
340 Passes 278
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
31 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.06.2024 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 0-0 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
27.08.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 2-3 HT 1-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
27.05.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 0-1 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
07.08.2022 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 0-0 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
25.06.2022 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 3-2 HT 2-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
20.03.2022 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 2-1 HT 1-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Phoenix Rising
1-2
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
0.89 xG 1.20
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 10
302 Passes 481
83% Pass Accuracy 91%
20 Box Touches 22
9 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Vegas Lights nicked a narrow win over Phoenix Rising 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Phoenix Rising at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Phoenix Rising had 40% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 60%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 0.89 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Las Vegas Lights led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Phoenix Rising and 1.33 for Las Vegas Lights.

What was the final score of Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights?

Phoenix Rising 1-2 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights?

Before kick-off our model rated a Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 42%, draw 25%, Las Vegas Lights 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Phoenix Rising) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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