Queretaro 0-2 Tigres UANL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 29 Sep 2025

📅29/09/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.48
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
56%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.95
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
3.55
6+ Goals
8%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 31% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
33%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
19%
+2.0pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
56%
Away Win
57%
-0.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 61%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -3%
1.00/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/0.96
-10% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +28%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
271 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 82%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
18.4 Crosses 25.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Tigres UANL
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.93 xG 1.63
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
198 Passes 505
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
14 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.03.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
18.09.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 1-0 HT 1-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
29.01.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 1-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
03.09.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 5-0 HT 2-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
17.04.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 0-0 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
31.07.2022 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-1 HT 1-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
0-2
AWAY Tigres UANL
1.29 xG 1.99
29% Ball Possession 71%
11 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 10
213 Passes 629
76% Pass Accuracy 91%
18 Box Touches 39
19 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Tigres UANL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL got the better of Queretaro 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tigres UANL as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Queretaro had 29% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 71%, shots finished 11-20, expected goals 1.29 to 1.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Queretaro and 1.50 for Tigres UANL.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Tigres UANL?

Queretaro 0-2 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 29/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Tigres UANL?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 21%, draw 23%, Tigres UANL 56%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
29 Sep 2025
06:05 Tijuana vs Cruz Azul Analysis →