Martigues 0-3 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 29 Oct 2024

📅29/10/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.69
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
48%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.93
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
18.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.42
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
6%
8.06
X/2
17%
4.13
X/X
7%
4.47
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.52
2/X EV+ ✗
13%
14.2
Value flag · 2/X at 14.2 — our 13% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
24%
+1.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
48%
Away Win
50%
-1.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Martigues EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 54%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.92/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.03
-69% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
305 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 80%
13.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
17.0 Crosses 16.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Martigues
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Caen
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
05.01.2002 Martigues Martigues 2-1 HT 1-1 Caen Caen FR2
18.08.2001 Caen Caen 1-0 HT 0-0 Martigues Martigues FR2
20.04.2001 Caen Caen 1-2 HT 0-1 Martigues Martigues FR2
28.10.2000 Martigues Martigues 2-2 HT 0-2 Caen Caen FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Martigues
0-3
AWAY Caen
0.31 xG 2.99
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
245 Passes 366
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Martigues vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caen swept aside Martigues 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Caen as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Martigues had 43% of the ball to Caen's 57%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.31 to 2.99.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Martigues had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Martigues and 1.25 for Caen.

What was the final score of Martigues vs Caen?

Martigues 0-3 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Martigues vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Martigues 25%, draw 27%, Caen 48%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caen), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Caen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR2 More France - Ligue 2
29 Oct 2024
22:30 Amiens SC vs Paris FC Analysis →
22:30 Guingamp vs Ajaccio Analysis →
22:30 Stade Lavallois vs Clermont Analysis →
22:30 Troyes vs Pau Analysis →
22:30 Red Star FC 93 vs Metz Analysis →
22:30 Lorient vs Dunkerque Analysis →