Colwyn Bay 5-4 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.94
2-3 Goals
46%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.68
6+ Goals
10%
15.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-2.4pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.6pp
41%
Away Win
41%
-0.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.7pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colwyn Bay EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 45%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +15%
0.71/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.10
-40% / +111% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
274 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colwyn Bay
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Penybont
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2025 Penybont Penybont 1-0 HT 1-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
16.03.2024 Penybont Penybont 5-0 HT 1-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
03.02.2024 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 1-2 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
25.11.2023 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 2-1 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
09.09.2023 Penybont Penybont 0-1 HT 0-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
POST-MATCH Colwyn Bay vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colwyn Bay squeezed past Penybont 5-4. Half-time: 4-2. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Penybont at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Penybont led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Colwyn Bay and 1.80 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Colwyn Bay vs Penybont?

Colwyn Bay 5-4 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colwyn Bay vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated an Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Colwyn Bay 30%, draw 30%, Penybont 41%. The final score 5-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Penybont), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penybont) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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