Polonia Warszawa 2-0 Pogon Siedlce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.1
Over 2.5
60%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.61
No
41%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.97
2-3 Goals
34%
1.82
4-5 Goals
29%
2.94
6+ Goals
13%
9.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
12%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-2.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
44%
-3.6pp
60%
Over 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.1pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.64/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.40
-3% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
327 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonia Warszawa
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2025 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 1-1 HT 1-0 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL1
09.04.2025 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 2-1 HT 2-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL1
22.09.2024 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-4 HT 0-1 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL1
13.11.2022 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 0-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
23.07.2022 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-1 HT 2-0 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonia Warszawa
2-0
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
64% Ball Possession 36%
10 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Polonia Warszawa vs Pogon Siedlce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonia Warszawa got the better of Pogon Siedlce 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Polonia Warszawa as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Polonia Warszawa had 64% of the ball to Pogon Siedlce's 36%, shots finished 10-5.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Polonia Warszawa and 1.40 for Pogon Siedlce.

What was the final score of Polonia Warszawa vs Pogon Siedlce?

Polonia Warszawa 2-0 Pogon Siedlce in the Poland - 1st Division on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonia Warszawa vs Pogon Siedlce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Polonia Warszawa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Polonia Warszawa 48%, draw 24%, Pogon Siedlce 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Polonia Warszawa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Polonia Warszawa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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