UD Oliveirense 2-0 Leixoes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.75
Over
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.83
2-3
40%
1.74
4-5
21%
3.81
6+
9%
17.15
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.83 — our 30% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.2pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Leixoes EU Bookmakers 43%
+8% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.35/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.10
+19% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -19%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
239 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.9 Crosses 19.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Oliveirense
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Leixoes
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.23 xG 1.22
49% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
244 Passes 289
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 4
08.02.2025 Leixoes Leixoes 1-2 HT 0-2 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
31.08.2024 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-1 HT 0-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
19.05.2024 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 1-3 HT 0-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
12.01.2024 Leixoes Leixoes 0-2 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
21.01.2023 Leixoes Leixoes 1-2 HT 1-2 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
19.11.2022 Leixoes Leixoes 2-1 HT 1-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD Oliveirense
2-0
AWAY Leixoes
2.33 xG 1.53
48% Ball Possession 52%
5 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 2
188 Passes 255
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
8 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH UD Oliveirense vs Leixoes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Oliveirense got the better of Leixoes 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day UD Oliveirense made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, UD Oliveirense had 48% of the ball to Leixoes's 52%, shots finished 5-10, expected goals 2.33 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for UD Oliveirense and 1.33 for Leixoes.

What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs Leixoes?

UD Oliveirense 2-0 Leixoes in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs Leixoes?

Before kick-off our model rated a UD Oliveirense win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 37%, draw 27%, Leixoes 36%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UD Oliveirense), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (UD Oliveirense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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