Al Ahli 0-3 Umm Salal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 29 Dec 2025

📅29/12/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.82
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.4
2-3 Goals
35%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.78
6+ Goals
13%
7.74
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
51%
-0.7pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.5pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Umm Salal EU Bookmakers 29%
-14% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.29/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.39
-38% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
452 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 76%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
15.7 Crosses 12.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Umm Salal
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.99 xG 1.18
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
424 Passes 220
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
21 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.04.2025 Al Ahli Al Ahli 0-1 HT 0-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
23.11.2024 Umm Salal Umm Salal 0-3 HT 0-3 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
29.02.2024 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-2 HT 1-2 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
02.01.2024 Umm Salal Umm Salal 2-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KATYK
15.10.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-1 HT 1-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KATYK
23.09.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 3-1 HT 2-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
POST-MATCH Al Ahli vs Umm Salal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Umm Salal swept aside Al Ahli 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Al Ahli at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Umm Salal led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al Ahli and 1.50 for Umm Salal.

What was the final score of Al Ahli vs Umm Salal?

Al Ahli 0-3 Umm Salal in the Qatar League on 29/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli vs Umm Salal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahli win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli 50%, draw 23%, Umm Salal 27%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Al Ahli), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Ahli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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