Chorley 3-2 Alfreton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 30 Jan 2024

📅30/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.5
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 28% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.6pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chorley EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 34%
+9% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.74/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.33
+12% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
365 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chorley
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Alfreton Town
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.01.2024 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
14.01.2023 Chorley Chorley 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
29.08.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
15.04.2022 Chorley Chorley 1-2 HT 1-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
30.08.2021 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
12.12.2020 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chorley
3-2
AWAY Alfreton Town
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Chorley vs Alfreton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chorley nicked a narrow win over Alfreton Town 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Chorley as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Chorley had 44% of the ball to Alfreton Town's 56%, shots finished 7-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chorley and 0.83 for Alfreton Town.

What was the final score of Chorley vs Alfreton Town?

Chorley 3-2 Alfreton Town in the England - Conference on 30/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chorley vs Alfreton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chorley win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Chorley 42%, draw 24%, Alfreton Town 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chorley), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chorley) ✓ Over 2.5
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