Zalgiris Vilnius 2-3 Hegelmann — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 30 Jan 2025

📅30/01/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.8
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
35%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
52%
-9.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
35%
Away Win
24%
+10.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Hegelmann EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
392 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Hegelmann
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.10.2022 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 HT 0-0 Hegelmann LITK
29.09.2021 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 4-0 HT 1-0 Hegelmann LITK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
2-3
AWAY Hegelmann
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hegelmann squeezed past Zalgiris Vilnius 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Zalgiris Vilnius at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Zalgiris Vilnius had 51% of the ball to Hegelmann's 49%, shots finished 12-14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Zalgiris Vilnius had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Zalgiris Vilnius and 0.50 for Hegelmann.

What was the final score of Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann?

Zalgiris Vilnius 2-3 Hegelmann in the Friendlies on 30/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Zalgiris Vilnius 42%, draw 23%, Hegelmann 35%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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