Nacional Asuncion 0-3 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 30 Jan 2025

📅30/01/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.67
Draw
23%
2.94
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.52
Over 2.5
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
34%
+11.3pp
23%
Draw
30%
-7.6pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.6pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional Asuncion EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 40%
-4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -27%
1.01/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.66
-13% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -33%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
280 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 1.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional Asuncion
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Libertad
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2024 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 2-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad PAR
29.07.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-2 HT 0-1 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
22.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 5-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
18.04.2024 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 1-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
24.09.2023 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 2-3 HT 1-2 Libertad Libertad PAR
08.07.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional Asuncion
0-3
AWAY Libertad
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad ran out comfortable winners over Nacional Asuncion 3-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Nacional Asuncion at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Nacional Asuncion had 48% of the ball to Libertad's 52%, shots finished 11-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 2.17 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad?

Nacional Asuncion 0-3 Libertad in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 30/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional Asuncion win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Nacional Asuncion 45%, draw 23%, Libertad 32%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Nacional Asuncion), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nacional Asuncion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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30 Jan 2025
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