Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Melbourne City
AVUS
3-0
HT 1-0
Wellington Phoenix
AVUK
4-1
HT 1-0
Wellington Phoenix
AVUS
Wellington Phoenix 2-2 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics
Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne City shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Melbourne City at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 47% of the ball to Melbourne City's 53%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 1.91 to 1.91.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.83 for Melbourne City.
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City?
Wellington Phoenix 2-2 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 30/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City?
Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 26%, draw 26%, Melbourne City 49%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.