Adelaide United vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Adelaide United v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals
Adelaide United vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-3
HT 2-2
Adelaide United
AVUS
Adelaide United 1-1 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics
Adelaide United and Macarthur couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 24% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, both teams to score (61%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.
On the day, Adelaide United had 59% of the ball to Macarthur's 41%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 2.08 to 1.71.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macarthur led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Adelaide United and 2.50 for Macarthur.
What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Macarthur?
Adelaide United 1-1 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 30/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Macarthur?
Before kick-off our model rated a Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 39%, draw 24%, Macarthur 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Adelaide United), Over 2.5 went the other way.