Casertana 1-0 Taranto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
72%
1.48
Over 2.5
28%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
29%
2.16
No
71%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
47%
2.16
2-3 Goals
32%
1.81
4-5 Goals
15%
5.81
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.16 — our 47% vs market 39.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
20%
2/1
4%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.8pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+6.6pp
72%
Under 2.5
64%
+7.8pp
28%
Over 2.5
36%
-7.8pp
29%
BTTS Yes
42%
-12.7pp
71%
BTTS No
58%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casertana EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Taranto EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +16%
1.20/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.08
-2% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
342 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casertana
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Taranto
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.11.2023 Taranto Taranto 0-1 HT 0-1 Casertana Casertana İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casertana
1-0
AWAY Taranto
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Casertana vs Taranto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casertana edged past Taranto 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Casertana found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (72%), no to both teams scoring (71%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Casertana had 34% of the ball to Taranto's 66%, shots finished 9-10.

What was the final score of Casertana vs Taranto?

Casertana 1-0 Taranto in the Italy - Serie C on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casertana vs Taranto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casertana win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Casertana 39%, draw 28%, Taranto 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Casertana), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Casertana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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